Kevin
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 29 2002 10:12 PM
Dolly will definitely not be an easy recurver/93L.

Dolly: Has anyone noticed the tone between the first advisory and the second one? Notice how much more uncertain advisory 2 sounds than 1...but yet it strengthens Dolly more than the first advisory. Dolly may try to recurve, but more than likely will turn back west. This is not an instant fish and nor do I think it will be. What boggles me is that NHC is actually favoring some of the global models right now, but at the same time, the manner in which the globals initialized and have handled this system has been horrible.

93L: This one may try to develop slowly over the next couple of days. It should track NW towards the Yucatan Peninsula. If it develops, things could get interesting after the Yucatan.

Thoughts and comments needed on the model troubles with Dolly.

Kevin



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