new model runs don't have dolly trying to lift north so much.. which goes in line with what i had in mind. i know they keep mentioning that it could intensify quickly.. but here's my take: at such a low latitude, the rate of strengthening will be below the climatological rate. how far north dolly does drift off its westward movement axis will have huge implications for its future. if it stays at low latitude, it can plow into the caribbean late next week, no problem.. but if it drifts north, it will probably miss the islands north as a much weaker system. since it would be about 8-12 days away from possibly reaching the u.s., dont have any real opinion on it at this point.
closer to home there are three areas among which at least one tropical system should emerge.
first is 93L down in the SW caribbean. convection died overnight yet again, but every day when it comes back it looks more and more ominous. there seems to be a broad surface low down there which has a fair chance of developing if it can start sustaining convection.
the system east of the bahamas is now around 25/68, moving w to wnw. convection keeps refiring overnight and the IR2 pics are confirming earlier visibles suggesting that the trades are buckling around the disturbance. this could end up in north or south carolina in a couple of days as a tropical system, but probably a weak one if at all.
the other area of interest is the central gulf. there is a broad sfc low centered near 25/89 that seems to be drifting sw now. convection from the day has gone from sparse to nil, but when it comes back tomorrow it could get the feedback mechanism going and represents yet another tropical cyclone development threat.
other things down the road.. the big tutt low east of bermuda which is causing the nasty shear jet that is waiting for dolly if it goes north.. is forecast by some models to be the focal area for future development. an amplification out near 50w and a tropical wave seem to be involved in this. i only saw late gfdl runs showing this, so it may be crap.
westpac.. genevieve is about out of steam, fausto is over marginal waters north of hawaii and may be reforming, ele is getting very strong near the dateline. disturbance 92E south of mexico will probably end up as hernan and harrass the riviera or baja over the weekend.
westpac typhoons are going up near and south of japan.. this teleconnects to atlantic storms threatening the east coast.. doesnt bode well for the u.s. if anything gets through.
HF tallahassee, fl 0452z30august