an amplification out in the central atlantic is going to erode the subtropical ridge early next week. basically dolly has to stay down and not move wnw for the meanwhile, as amplifications out there tend to get most early developing cape verdes. speaking of which, dont think dolly is quite as strong as 55kt. 45 maybe.
second area on my list is the one near 25/70. persistence and the environment ahead, and the fact that it has been trying to develop down to the sfc. if it pops, the east coast gets hit. it has, by the way, been slowing down.
third in terms of imminent interest is the gulf low. dont follow the take that it's like td4 from aug 2000. that was a tight, semiconvective swirl, this one is quite broad. globals have been predicting this for days, now here it is. probably wont do anything until the chaser wave catches up and spikes the convection. movement unsure, mostly west by models, but could be sw or nw. steering env isnt very strong.
sw caribbean--good looking invest yesterday went without convection for too long. the broad sfc low still seems to be there, but mid level stuff is gone. not going to do anything in this basin unless convection comes back. what hernan in the eastpac does should tell what former 93L will.
wave near the islands.. have to mention it. because bastardi did. env ahead isnt half bad, so once it gets by the shear.. well, have to see what it can do. energy from it could easily catch up to the disturbance at 25/70 and spark it.
nw atlantic: gfdl keeps trying to develop a westward moving storm near bermuda... from the upper tutt low working down? strictly gfdl, but there is forecast to be an amplification in the area, so sfc prog might check out.
HF TLH, FL 1632z30august