dolly's convection has really died off today. still going, but not like before. dvorak estimates 2.0/3.0 now. this die off is probably a subsidence related. follows that i dont expect dolly to intensify very rapidly next few days, track mostly to the west.
GOM system is drifting west by visibles.. the true story is told on WV. big stream of subsidence from the north, northerly shear, ripping away the convection. upper high over texas lies ahead though, so the unfavorable environment shouldnt persist.
WV tells a complicated story with the system near 25/70. system is sandwiched between upper lows, diffluence aiding the convection, very complicated. if it can get a surface connection going, its a no-brainer, but that still hasnt really happened like it needs to.
SW carib system seems to have transferred most of its energy to the eastpac, will probably develop over there.
by the way, another fairly good wave coming down the pipeline. has a similar signature/profile to dolly's while still over land. maybe an invest in 2-3 days if it can hold together.
HF 1838z30august