Although Dolly has been classified as a tropical system for a while now, this is only my first forecast on her. And despite all of the hype in both directions (dead Dolly vs. livin' Dolly), I believe NHC and the models may well be out to lunch for the time being.
Discussion
Though Dolly has weakened a bit per NHC (50 vs. 55 knots), I believe Dolly really hasn't touched 55 knots and has been at 50 all day. Convection has decreased somewhat, but not in a mammoth proportion as others have been claiming. The convection and slight disorganization disruption may have occured when some slightly drier air was sucked into Dolly's north and northwest side eariler today. This was present on water vapor imagery. This disruption, however, appears to have paused for now. Dolly may maintain her current strength for now or strengthing may occur later tonight.
Track discussion
NHC seems to be very bullish on this system eventually turning towards the wnw, but I have doubted their track forecast for a while now. They say they are using the more "realiable" global models over the tropical models. However, it should be noted that the majority of the global models have initialized this system too far north since the beginning. So, given Dolly's low-latitude, I believe there is a strong possibility that Dolly could continue westward through 60 hours with only very small track flucuations. Beyond that, an upper-level trough is forecasted to approach the system. This could cause it to move more to the nw for a short period of time, however, it may not fully recurve the system after 72 hours. I only expect a small nw flucutation to occur in 61-72 hours. Also, if Dolly continues moving west as I forecast and remains weak, the effects of this trough would be minimal. Nonetheless, I still believe this trough will not be able to do the job of recurving Dolly. I Expect a bend back towards the wnw or possibly w after 72 hours. NHC has not hinted as to what may happen after the nw flucuation, but I believe that this feature will not recurve Dolly. Also, the Bermuda High has had a tendency to build in very strongly and rapidly after troughs lift out this year. This should also be monitored if Dolly does not recurve since it would shunt her west and possibly provide a favorable area for rapid intensification. Thus, all interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Dolly over the weekend.
Intensity forecast:
Initial: 50 knots
12 hours: 50 knots
24 hours: 55 knots
36 hours: 60 knots
48 hours: 65 knots
72 hours: 65 knots
*It is important to acknowledge that large errors can occur, and are likely, at 48-72 hour periods.*
Next forecast: 10 or 11 PM

Thoughts and comments needed, and I like I said, we may see NHC change their tune on this eventually.

Also, the system ne of the Bahamas could develop slowly over the next few days.

Kevin