Just an update on Dolly...over the past hour convection has really come back on strong with Dolly, but an LLC is difficult to find due to the lack of visible satellite imagery. It appears that the convection is either north of what is a bare LLC, or the LLC is uniformly under the convection and is a half a degree or a degree further north. However, Dvorak T-numbers have fallen to 1.5/2.5 and there is a possibility that Dolly is a very vigorous tropical wave with winds around 40 knots. We will know more by the morning...for now, my earlier forecast remains unchanged. However, depending on how Dolly fares overnight, adjusments will be made in my morning forecast. I'm getting the drift that timing will be everything here.

Kevin