1. dolly is and has been a tropical storm all along. when you see the low cloud field turning the entire way around the storm, this is obvious.
2. 11pm advisory has dolly well north of the previous path. apparently when all the convection quit this afternoon they got a look at the low level center and have it tagged at nearly 12N. personally think that is a little overdone, but dolly certainly doesnt seem to be moving due west.
3. dolly should reach the SW jet ahead of the TUTTin 2-3 days. i dont see there being enough of an all-around trough out there to recurve the system, but until it weakens enough to turn back into the low level flow i suspect it will gain a good bit of latitude. dont think it will hit the islands.
other items of interest:
sw caribbean system is in the eastpac now.. but some disturbed weather is up in the NW carib now. watching for any kind of persistence.
system east of the bahamas essentially unchanged, moving slowly wnw. upper lows nearby making its cloud pattern confused, persistent convection and low level wind field curvature not really improved. as it gets further west it should become dissociated with the upper lows and do something new.. either die or develop.
i agree with bill's take on the gulf low. it has no convection.. reminiscent of those july lows we watched for days on end that never amounted to anything. this one is moving sw, should end up in mexico as nothing in a few.
wave entering the islands is under heavy shear. have to see what it has left once it gets further west.
wave about to emerge from africa is interesting looking. maybe something if it doesnt collapse off the coast.
westpac typhoons are running west to east asia. this teleconnects to danger on our coast. ele in the centpac is moving north, though.. wonder what that means? maybe a central atlantic trough?
thats the only feasible support i can conjure for dolly to be an early recurver, though the fact that it formed so far east is a reason within itself...
HF TLH 0432z31august