I tend to agree on all sides with Joe B. He's out there doing his own thing, and I read him every day. Sometimes I watch the videos if there's anything exciting going on. One thing that was interesting in his comments today - that I couldn't make heads or tails of was the discussion of how after Allison, they knew TX was out of the woods. If I put 2 and 2 together, maybe what he was saying was that the fluke that was Allison set the western-most boundary area that no other storm would approach that season because of the setup thereafter? Obviously there must be some connection with an early subtropical storm and what it does for down the line?

The other thing of note from his discussion today was that he seems to have found a similarity in this year's setup with the previous 4 years. I don't see a strong East Coast trof this year. It seems like it's progressing the opposite to me - high pressure over Florida. And if his proverbial 'trof in the means' sets up between 90 and 100 W, that tells me the entire Gulf Coast from Eastern TX to South FL would be in the line of fire at any given time.

A quick check of the models tonight showed that the European, which was the first to jump on development, really isn't doing anything. Some of the other models want to set up low pressure NE of the Bahamian Kingdom or off the NC Coast in 96-120 hours. One of the MM5s that I looked at appears to be overly bullish on Eastpac action, but several of the other models are wanting to put something down there too.

At least things are getting interesting.

Steve