I agree Mark..I think if you are a tropical wx "expert", you should be able to deviate from what they say is happening and just say what you see is happening. I think, after just looking at the Weekend Update, that they are (maybe) basing the track of whatever this storm is at 11 on climatology, because the "usual" tracks in September WOULD take it into the Carolinas. They have been saying NW for at least 36 hours now, and they were wrong. It even says "west" in the STD statement. But we know that nothing is a sure bet in weather, and I would be very hesitant to base my predictions on "climatology". They may very well be right, but being that they are THE Weather Channel, they need to be more responsible in their reporting.
I remember a storm that was suppossed to make that "climatogically" favored turn to the WNW. It didn't. It went west, and no one was ready and had 1 day to prepare for it as it crossed the gulfstream.

His name was Andrew.