Colleen,you are right. I think we are both in agreement that the NHC will only go by what the models say. If the models are all over the place than they will pick whatever is in the middle and go with that.The problem with the models is that most of them what to go the easy route. If there is a trough in site than they will ALWAYS say that the trough will come and pick a storm up and take it out.They never even act like there is a possibility that this won't happen. And if they don't than neither will the NHC. All of us on this site know better than to trust models,though. That is why sometimes we seem to look smarter than the people at the WC and the NHC. I'm with you, Colleen.

ShawnS