This is from the NWS/Melbourne 2:45pm Update:

"RECON FLIGHT DATA SINCE THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A BROAD CIRCULATION
JUST EAST OF FL AND THE BULK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION CLOSE ENUF TO
AREA TO LIE WITHIN MLB RADAR RANGE. LOWEST PRESSURE READINGS HAVE
BEEN ONLY AROUND 1015 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE IN THE HIGH RANGE
FOR TD INITIATION. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARM GULF STREAM
WATER AND RECENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER WOULD
SUGGEST STRENGTHENING OR FURTHER ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL RECON
FLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ABLE TO CLOSE A SPECIFIC CENTER. FOR
NOW WILL PROCEED WITH FORECAST REFLECTING MODELS TAKING SYSTEM ON AN
INCREASINGLY NW TRACK WHILE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA COAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH TAKING SYSTEM NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD AS SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD. BEYOND 48 HOURS MOVEMENT
LESS CERTAIN AS BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHEAST US
COAST.

1. They are NOT sure that the system will head WNW or even NW after 48 hours.
2. They believe it may be strengthening because of the Gulfstream Waters.

Another thing....on the long range Melbourne Radar Loop, is the spinning just east of Daytona Beach where they think the center of circulation is right now? Because if it is, it's moving WEST. Not WNW, not NW, just plain old WEST.