#5. To me, it appears to be more or less stationary possibly heading slightly NW. I base this off of the Goes-8 Vis and IR (last 15 and 30 frames respectively. Apparently the convection was bulging west, warmed up, fired up again, now warming again.

So where does it go? I don't see it hitting Florida at this point. It is possible the system could brush the GA/SC Coast or further north in NC as a TS. Some models take it inland and move it west. I don't really see that right now, though 4-5 days down the road, anything could happen (big trof supposed to come down in 72 hours). #5 could just head on NE after stalling and become a fish spinner or a possible threat to Bermuda. #5 could also get stuck as per GFDL.

I'll be watching the Gulf as originally planned tomorrow thru Thursday. Some of the models have backed off on development in the Gulf, favoring generally lower pressure throughout the Gulf instead of tied to a closed system. I haven't checked out the long-range ETA yet. Eta has been most aggressive. For down the line, MRF puts stock in a fairly strong system off the FL SE Coast in 9 days. I doubt anything long-range from the MRF/GFS but I ran across it and figured it was worth noting.

Also worth noting, I just ran a check by Accuweather and JB is putting the Texas GC on notice with something like, "If I was on the TX Coast, I'd keep an eye open." I've had mine opened and focused.

"...with my good eye closed." - Soundgarden

Steve