yesterday bastardi said something about hurricane tracks possibly becoming trained this year again instead of random. as a precursor to how future season storms might want to behave, whatever the current wannabe disturbance does might clue us in on what will occur later. i've found it much more effective to be cynical about the chances anything has of being bad for some place in the u.s. (trick i learned from jj), this one is no different. several model solutions want to shear it out offshore or jet the low northeast as a frontal low. though it may choose to be pesky and scrape along florida and visit me up here in the carolinas with rainfall, i'm more inclined to think it will stay east and out to sea.
there really still isn't anything impressive with the whole breakaway system yet, still just a likely but not certain option. at least there will be real relief from the cold spell here, after one more night in the low 40s. hey, we hit 72 today, satisfying enough (haven't hit 70 since last friday)...