I disagree with Bastardi when he says Florida is out of the woods. That is not hardly true. NHC has this one pegged real well through 24 hours. Basically, the storm will only be able to drift north until the trough passes it. After that, the storm should begin to go west and southwest. It could get as far south as Melbourne and could strengthen to as much as 75-80 knots.

So, all bets are off after 24 hours. My feeling is that the north and central coasts of Florida are going to have an unexpected problem on their hands as early as Wednesday.

Kevin