actually he writes

In reply to:

Same thing for Edouard tomorrow and Wednesday. What is shear on a track north is not if it dances, then turns south then southwest. Florida is not out of the woods yet, in fact after it tip toes northeast to north into tomorrow, the south path is becoming more likely, then perhaps even southwest. Such a path is a deepening path for a storm like this, for the upper shear from the north and northwest is no longer shear for a storm shifting south, if the direction of the storm is the opposite direction. In fact, it really becomes a problem if the jet considerations are such that the storm is in the synoptic scale upward motion max in the jet exit region.

thenlater in his post he writes

In reply to:

Point is, Florida is out of the woods (actually with the current strength, it's not woods but more like a tangled underbrush) until tomorrow, but do not write this off yet.

his writing may jump around inhis writing but it seems he belives it is possible it could track back sw