trying to figure out what edouard is going to do is sort of a pot shot. the depth of the storm at any particular time, paired with dry air entrainment and subtle changes in the flow around the storm are tough call variables.. but the consensus has center more around a looping meander for the meanwhile and then back to the west. this i can buy. however, with the slow movement shear and upwelling will be the big threats to the storm here. hard to see much intensification, unless the gfdl is for once seeing and not exaggerating wildly.
back towards the coast somewhere between brunswick and daytona seems reasonable enough, though i realize this is around 150 miles of coastline, and the storm is only 200 or so away. hit timetable is within 12 hours of 9pm thursday, best guess. intensity 50 to 60kt. should the storm drop sw then it could be much stronger... though seems less likely at this point.
upstream changes are another concern. the disturbance south of louisiana has ridging aloft aided by the upper low to its SW, and an exit jet going straight at edouard. this jet is all that stands between edouard and the coast, as it is keeping the storm checked. should the gulf system try to develop this jet could consequently further impede edouard. bastardi sees some potential here, though it lacks concentrated deep convection. might try some late hour development off the texas coast tomorrow or wednesday.
still not as convinced of dolly's neat recurvature as others, think that the shear will decouple the system. the inter-trough disturbed weather to the north near bermuda is looking lively, by the way, as models earlier forecast. dead dolly may mean another live system up there.
the summer noreaster off jersey would be a tropical storm had it developed faster. if it develops a deep convection core maybe a subtrop.
invest came on the system that emerged from africa, but d numbers have dropped. nrl wasnt showing this invest, but ssd had it pegged. convection went out the door though, so no early development here. system out ahead at 35w doesnt look as good either, but may try something just east of the islands in dolly's wake in just a couple of days. whatever comes behind dolly is going to be trouble.
whatever happened to the carib wave, i wonder. lost its mojo, not looking feisty at all. just have to monitor for it possibly coming back.
HF TLH 0012z03september