TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION

PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES

OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI SEP 6 2002

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

30.0N 79.0W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2

29.8N 80.0W 35 X X X 35 NORFOLK VA X X X 2 2

29.2N 81.0W 14 4 2 2 22 KEY WEST FL X X 2 4 6

MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 5 5 11

MUHA 230N 824W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL X 2 6 5 13

MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 VENICE FL X 3 6 5 14

MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL 1 5 6 4 16

MYGF 266N 787W X 2 2 4 8 CEDAR KEY FL 1 6 6 4 17

MARATHON FL X X 2 4 6 ST MARKS FL X 2 7 6 15

MIAMI FL X 1 3 4 8 APALACHICOLA FL X X 5 8 13

W PALM BEACH FL 1 3 4 3 11 PANAMA CITY FL X X 3 8 11

FT PIERCE FL 4 5 3 3 15 PENSACOLA FL X X X 7 7

COCOA BEACH FL 8 5 3 2 18 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5

DAYTONA BEACH FL 13 4 3 1 21 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4

JACKSONVILLE FL 11 6 3 2 22 BURAS LA X X X 3 3

SAVANNAH GA 9 7 3 2 21 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2

CHARLESTON SC 9 6 3 1 19 GULF 29N 85W X X 5 8 13

MYRTLE BEACH SC 3 7 2 2 14 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 7 8

WILMINGTON NC X 4 2 3 9 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4

MOREHEAD CITY NC X 1 1 3 5

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT

A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED

FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED

C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU

D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI

E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN