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edouard has lost its convective burst from this morning and will have to throw more if it is to stabilize. sw movement is very slow and not really complicating the shear.. probably going to lessen as the system loses latitude. think the 65mph is a little overzealous, as without convection edouard wont sustain such a strength. has the look of a 50mph tropical storm under shear. dolly seems to be moving nne today. really going with the flow. recurvature pretty definite, not going to break out and run west convectionless. three well defined swirls, one near 35w moving slowly w, two near 20w, the stronger one at 18n the weaker at 12n. the 18n swirl is invest 95L, but moving west over cool water. the close proximity of all of these is going to make the development of the next storm rather confused, but probably have a storm develop out of all this. nw gulf has a pretty broad sfc low which isnt moving much under that southerly jet.. good divergence aloft. could still get a late developer out of this. troughiness in the central atlantic not developing as far as i can tell, but avn and a couple of other models suggest a low between bermuda and the bahamas in the next amplification wake by the weekend. HF 1800z03september |