Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2002

dry air and shear put an end to the intensification of Edouard.
Each subsequent recon pass measured less wind. A NOAA research
aircraft is currently in the cyclone...and has found no flight-level
winds higher than 45 kt. One can argue that the strong winds found
this morning were mesoscale...rather than cyclone scale...but in any
event they are not there any more. There is no longer any deep
convection in the system...although there is still some about 50 N
mi to the east. The current intensity estimate of 45 kt may be
generous.
Edouard has been moving at 240/5...although the last few images
suggest a slower motion. The predominantly shallow system is
expected to continue to the west-southwest. The official forecast
is considerably quicker to the coast than the previous
advisory...and is close to a blend of the GFDL and shallow BAM
guidance. Interestingly...the UKMET turns the system around before
reaching the coast.
Although the SHIPS model still forecasts strengthening...the
official forecast calls for weakening to depression status before
landfall...given that dry air will continue to surround the cyclone
and the shear is expected to remain strong.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/2100z 29.8n 79.2w 45 kts
12hr VT 04/0600z 29.6n 80.1w 35 kts
24hr VT 04/1800z 29.3n 81.2w 30 kts...inland
36hr VT 05/0600z 28.8n 82.4w 25 kts...inland
48hr VT 05/1800z 28.5n 83.5w 30 kts...over water
72hr VT 06/1800z 28.5n 85.0w 35 kts