From Joe Bastardi...

5 PM. REASONABLE PEOPLE CAN DISAGREE.
My take on Edouard. Ride the UKMET through 72. This drops the system south southwest to just east of Melbourne. It also relaxes the shear which is happening. Why do I say that? Because the thunderstorms that got blown off this morning are no longer getting blown away further east, but staying where they are. However as we talked about below, this pulsing really takes a heck of alot of energy and so the system has to start lifting all that air again. Given the fact its over the gulf stream, what should happen tonight is that the next pulse develops over or near the center and stays much closer. We are still looking at the same ideas from this morning. So far Edouard has behaved according to the outline here. I think that it is still over near the east coast of Florida late Thursday. I wish to point out that this no change from what was said earlier, because this is doing what we said earlier as far as movement. So there is no need for me to react and change things. We will then have to examine things after that to determine where it goes later. Interesting observation: The splitting of the trof off the west coast argues for something to try to dig late into he weekend or early next week toward the Appalachians Chance are are the models instead of forcing a trof split with something like that are just sending over the top of the ridge. IN any case, my take is that the system moves to where we said by late Thursday and then takes its time if it wants to get into the gulf. I simply do not see the kind of low level flow to force it so quickly across Florida. So far use of US generated models has done nothing to show skill.