an invest, huh? with this damned slow computer i'm not going to bother looking up the nrl site, but that doesnt surprise me. look at the caribbean visible, you can see a weak surface low west of jamaica on the western edge of the frontal tail. it is more convective and more interesting-looking than the large frontal low currently NE of the bahamas. it is the caribbean low that is being tracked northward over the next few days and intensified off the carolinas. the models have been picking it up for several days now, and now i can see a surface low in the caribbean, so i'm starting to believe it's a real deal, but it still hasn't quite established itself. there's still plenty of shear and despite being mostly cut away from the westerlies.. it still is around a cold and nontropical upper air mass, so the low has not only to strengthen but also to become more tropical before it gets really interesting. but yes, this is finally becoming worthy of some concern. even as an early season hybrid system it could cause some pretty rough weather on the southeast coast if it comes close enough. right now the mrf at least has it pretty far off the east coast, and the trend has been to shift it east, but if the low develops it will have a fair amount of time over tropical waters and the strength and persistence of the upper trough remains to be told. if it pulls out quickly and the ridge builds in before our low takes the fast train to the north atlantic, we might have a meandering early season rainstorm a'la allison drifting around for memorial day weekend.