some of you sound surprised that edouard is throwing convection again.. when this off and on pattern has been going on for quite a while. here's the scoop.. the worst of the dry air entrainment and shear is passed, from here on the synoptic environment around edouard gets better. which means maybe from crappy to marginal. so, watch the intensity bob up and down while edouard does whatever it intends to.. maybe the sw movement most models like, maybe just more quasi-stationary annoying jerks. system is right over the gulf stream, so not thinking upwelling will be a huge factor. highest hit probabilities volusia and brevard counties.. which is really a lot of coastline when you think about it.
robert, youre still thinking about dolly. i am too. thought the system would just keep going west and lose the top.. but there was enough depth to get it moving northward. now it's opening up over time, the center is jumping around and what. the upper air trough ahead is quite complex, and dolly isnt as nicely defined as models are making it.. so with the poor initialization, dont expect them to get much right. might open up or get sucked into a deep layer storm, as some globals are hinting. im not sure if this teleconnection is real, but in the mid pacific typhoon ele is turning northwestward at fairly high latitude.. makes me wonder if it might be hinting on some sneak attack dolly has planned.
95L. it took the northerly path from the cape verde islands, now around 19/32. convection is refiring in spite of the fact ssts are around 25C underneath. the upper trough in dolly's wake will give way to ridging in its path, and ssts steadily pick up ahead.. so i expect this system to linger and develop.
two other areas of great uncertainty. disturbed weather persists in the gulf, with the upper ridge in place. near the coast the quick developer convection candidates are getting sheared, but between the yucatan and lousiana convection is just bubbling and not getting shredded. still bears watching.
southwest/south of 95L is another small circulation with convection firing around and nearby, and a big burst just lately right behind. earlier today i could see it on visibles, but nothing on the IR tonight and shortwave IR doesnt go that far out.. so i'm stuck wondering what is happening at the surface down there. highly questionable due to uncertainty and proximity to disturbance 95L.
think that covers all the bases. peace everybody.
HF 0426z04september