I've always liked the central pressure for a predictor of how the intensity of a storm is going to go. The lower the pressure, the more rapidly the storm's moving air up its core, and so the more rapidly air has to flow into the storm to replace that air. Yesterday we saw the pressure drop down to 1003, followed by an increase in intensity. The pressure went back up, and wind speeds dropped. The 2 a.m. recon had the central pressure down to 1002, where it's remained even up through the 8 a.m. recon. So we've got the pressure and a flare-up of convection on the plus side, and the shear on the minus side. Despite the NHC forecast of weakening before landfall, I suspect Edouard has a good chance of strengthening. Hopefully, however, the shear will win out before Edouard gets to the coast.

Chris