shawn, nhc is talking in the 11am outlook like the system off tx/la may develop. the 00zavn has something going out there, which absorbs edouard down the road. avn also stalls it offshore, but this is probably poor initialization (though this thing HAS been sitting off the coast for a couple of days). seeing as edouard is getting the nw outflow jet right across the top, and that system has parts at least that are under a large well defined upper ridge.. yeah, if that thing starts developing it could really wreck all the forecasts.
dolly has been decoupled, now a low cloud swirl in a hostile environment. dont count it out until totally dissipated though.
somebody mentioned that gfdl has another system behind edouard.. this is complicated. a number of models have been suggesting that a low would form south of bermuda due to an amplification, the one that was supposed to insure dolly's exit. some models loitered it, some split it, some jetted it out to the northeast. and some caught it under the building ridge. now this morning i see a slightly turning disturbance out in the general area, sheared and beaten as edouard was.. have to see if it persists.. i've been expecting something around there.
95L still has no deep convection but not any weaker. water temps underneath wont be at 26C until later on today, but it is moving towards the ridging ahead of dolly's killer trough. you know what i'm implying might happen..
can see the weak swirl to the ssw of 95L on visibles this morning, drifting west around 13N38W. 95L is caught in the mid layer flow and is going to breeze by to the north.. leaving this persistent swirl in its wake. it is still associated with convection, and waters down there are quite a bit warmer.
final note: bastardi says the next wave is energetic. 10W he said.. that means it comes out some time tomorrow.
so thats it.. four disturbed areas.. probably two will give us new storms.
HF 1531z04september