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edouard's center has broken out of its earlier westward rush, now drifting sw. change in speed/direction probably in response to the convection blowing up over central florida. best i can tell at this time the center is just north or northeast of daytona beach. pressure there is down to 1010mb, winds out of the west. system will probably take all day to cross the state tomorrow. maybe longer. chance it will survive the crossing maybe 60%. remains to be told if the pulsing convection will continue over land. nw gulf low 96L still broad and disorganized. low level convergence and conditions aloft are locked in support mode.. all that has to happen is for a low center to take over. 95L is passing north of the disturbance it has been tailing. throwing some spotty convection in on some of its bands. should increase as the system crosses over warmer waters, though shear is never going to fully relax. system to the south is unchanged, drifting west. may begin to organize tomorrow now as 95L moves away. HF 2214z04september |