lessee.. thats bertha, 40mph tropical storm, and edouard, 40mph tropical storm. i shiver at the thought of what the next one will bring.
td edouard, if it keeps the wsw pace up (unlikely) could in theory be over the gulf tomorrow afternoon. for tonight the system will have to get by devoid of convection, so expect whatever reaches the west coast tomorrow to be moribund.
fay this, fay that. system 96L still hasnt focused a low level center, just broad turning and a semicircle of convection. the spot where the greatest surface turning is seems to be west of the upper ridge, so southerly shear is plowing overhead. shear is shear, no matter which way it comes from. have to see if the convection can reorganize tomorrow and try again.
95L throwing a bit more convection. maybe a depression tomorrow. my guess would be it turns north into the central atlantic trough anyhow.
system south of 95L very hard to pick up on. convection spotty but still around at times. moving into a favorable environment, so watching.
several of the globals develop the next african wave outright. pretty sharp upper trough in the far eastern atlantic.. makes this prog sort of iffy. think there is a pretty good chance it will try something.
that is the basin. overnight convection loss makes everything look less promising, more realistic.
HF 0348z05september