well Dolly went N as expected though I thought it would of made it to 55W and 20N but was off by 2'deg and passed way east of bermuda as expected.
Eduard downgraded to a TD should bring some moisture to w florida on Thurs as he gets downgraded to a wave very soon. Actually he barely had TS winds at all. Only a down burst of winds when recon was in 2 days ago did they find the winds near 65mph but was barely a TS the whole time due to the strong shear. So basically me calling him 35mph and not a TS would now confirm me saying 8 in the 7-8 storm forcast of the season with 2 cape verdes in which 1 has already happend, then next wont be till near the end of the month.
A possible TD forming from my old forcasted system out of the carribean 2 weeks ago that came into play yesterday picked up moisuture and is now becoming better organized, with strong ridge to its n i expect the TD to move into Mexico or very extreme S Texas later thurs night into friday, so I was 36 hours off from 2 weeks back.
What is next? Well dont believe always in the GFDL but the nogaps and avn is always 2 of the best models. In day 5 a system will break off from a front that will swing in the atlantic around a HUGE RIDGE over the SE US. It will gather strength and move W towards the bahamas early next week. After that there should be no real stoping it from becoming our first hurricane and this will be very simular to Andrew in location but a tad North of there. I expect this to cross florida by next weekend (not this) and go into the gulf then head N into the s gulf states.
Again no nead for alarm since this is 4-5 days out from starting,, all eyes in S texas should watch this possible TD and there is a slim chance it could make TS status but nether the less will bring alot of rains to Corpus south. Scottsvb Hurricaneupdatecenter