Well, it appears that we finally have something that truly may be a threat. All we can really do right now it watch the satellite images and wait for more possible special statements from the NHC. If the system holds together well enough, expect recon tomorrow per NHC. In fact, the coordinates as of noon are already down on their recon plan (18.0N 80.0W). 12-hourly fixes will begin if the system develops on Saturday. The huge question is where the heck this system will go.

All I know is that with that trough lifting out and the high building in from the North is that this thing (TD1, ST storm, or even Arthur) may be a real pain in the ass with memorial day weekend arriving. My reasoning is that this high could cause the storm to wander around very close to the Florida Coast (during the weekend) and cause heavy rains and tropical storm force winds. The boaters won't like that at all. By early next week, it will either go inland over the SE coast somewhere and die out. Our other option is that the system becomes stubborn and waits until Saturday to actually develop. In this case, the system could get stuck down there. This would be great as Floridians would likely be spared for their Memorial Day weekend plans (a few showers instead a deluge of tropical rains). If sceniario #2 were to occur, the track of the system would be more difficult to forecast and it would likely get stronger than if it went up the East Coast. NWS offices along Fla East coast seem to say no effects, but I believe they are downplaying it for now. We'll see.