still looking sloppy.. shear has the convection on the NE edge of the (broad) center. i hear the complaints about nhc overkill.. yes, they arent consistent.. but this one is threatening and is a broad closed low with gale force winds.. might as well give it the name. remember allison didnt actually close until it was right offshore.. gale force winds usually mean the system is practically a t.s. even if the structure is still awakward. pressures have been falling, down from over 1010mb about 24hrs ago, to the current 1006. once the center tightens and all it will then become a question of how much time does the system get over water. if we awake to a vertically stacked system tomorrow down near 1000mb, could be a hurricane late in the day. things can intensify pretty fast over the gulf in september. an eastward relocation would put the center more under the ridging and start the bastardi snowball rolling. have to watch for center relocations.. luckily sfc pressures still lowest SW of the convection.
edouard is holding for now at a 20kt depression, moving SW. believe it or not shear will relax if it continues in this direction, just in time for fay to start pounding away.
the bermuda triangle area has lots of ominous slow turning in the low level cloud field, while convection is bursting in places. 00z model runs will be really spooky if they still want to develop something here like the last 00z and 12z sets.
invest 95L had slightly improved in appearance during the day, throwing an odd band of convection with regularity. good convergence ahead and lighter shear should give it better chances at organization. probably never threaten anywhere if it does develop.
low level turning i keep spotting ssw of 95L is still there, odd thunderstorm from time to time. almost no shear.. have to watch in case it gets convective.
dolly remains looking frontal, central atlantic trough lifting with them.
emerging wave should be tagged and invest tomorrow or saturday. should it develop immediately, probably be a recurver. longer it waits, more threatening its profile.
gustav is around the corner, i have a feeling.. probably a hanna somehwere in this active stretch as well.
HF 0522z06september