radar pres. has improved this morning. dominant center is at the northeast end of the broad low level core, tightening up. the open-looking sw quadrant is a result of land proximity, with the storm drawing inflow from semiarid texas... and probably more so the shear from the upper low over texas. have to wonder how much effect edouard has had on fay's movement, as it has been slowing the easterly flow. edouard looks to be opening up, so agree with the declassification.
here's my philosophy on fay: pressure keeps falling and center comes to resemble a more classic cdo as the system nears hurricane strength. probably become a minimal hurricane and move onshore near port lavaca or victoria, but skim the coast and bend sw slowly. lots of rain for the kiddies in central texas.
models still calling for a low to form somewhere between the bahamas and bermuda, develop into a tropical cyclone. several show it pumping the ridge and bending towards the west. possiblity it will hit the east coast early or middle next week. exact development location, track, intensity up in the air.. waiting to see where it tries to pop. some want to develop a binary system, or one with subtropical features.
95L is turning N into the central atlantic trough as it pulls away. presentation the same.. well defined low level swirl with transient convection. still has a decent chance of becoming a classified system.
south of 95L the low level swirl is reorganized into a broad turning axis.. low shear but scant convection. centered around 17/47.. level of definition essentially the same as in previous days. tracking wnw, downstream environment looks decent. another thing to watch.
the much hyped wave/low is offshore nearing 20w, looking quite well defined. taking a southerly track as well, it seems. should be an invest tomorrow.
G and H storms should come out of all this mess... likely. possibility of only one, or maybe 3.. but unlikely none.
HF 1657z06september