best i can figure, there still isnt a closed low down there, just a broad turning trough at the surface. except wait.. westerly wind reported at port au prince... ok, that changes things a tad. could be a bad report, but it does look a bit better organized anyhow. exactly when this thing closes off and starts to deepen, it looks like the upper trough tugging it NE is about to cut it loose, maybe allow it to drift back NW towards florida as the upper ridge makes a return. thats one model camp at least.. quite a few would rather let it just stay out to sea. but theres still so much consistency about it getting better organized that i'm pretty sure we'll have a storm (tropical or subtropical) by the weekend.