Fay's history is to spawn it's convection with a minor burst after midnight with the real pulse up coming between 5-7am. Rainfall amounts are really starting to pop just off the coast. There is a 'worm' of 12-15" moving closer to the coast between Victoria and Galveston if I've got my TX coastal cities right.

Due to relentless shear, most of the convection tonight is well north of the circulation. This doesn't really bode well for the UT Coast if Fay eventually decides on a WNW-NW track. It's worse if she stalls longer than expected. NHC has delayed landfall by 12 hours since yesterday. I never thought Fay would move in overnight tonight to begin with, but they have to go with what the consensus of the modes and their forecasters come up with.

In any event, it looks like the initial threat is from just SE of Houston southward. I'm sure overall there will be plenty of 5-10" amounts. But there will be more than just an isolated 15-25" when it's all said and done.

On the IR loop you provided, it almost looks like the center is between 96 and 97, but that could easily be a trick of the IR.

Anyway, sounds like an exciting time in Texas. Wish I was there. It's cloudy and breezy here tonight. I miight go grab some tequila and sit on the front porch enjoying my 2002 tropical weather.

Steve