everything ive been watching is verifying ok. fay still under shear, slowly working towards the coast. now very doubtful about the storm becoming a hurricane, as the upper air features across the atlantic dont seem to be changing much. so my worst idea earlier will probably be that the storm would become a weak hurricane. thus, as edouard was endlessly pelted by shear, fay is getting similar treatment. main convective burst is onshore in brazoria and matagorda counties. training of precip is reminiscent of allison, but this time not over houston.. so destructive potential is much lower. thinking an extreme but not terribly widespread flooding event a la allison will be the story of fay.
other features progressing more or less as imagined. forecast cyclogenesis in the southern bahamas.. am thinking further east, maybe north of hispaniola or PR. probably initially move NE or N, hook around to west by early next week and close in on the carolinas. think the amplification next week is overdone, so probably just slow down and behave erratically. nhc already mentioning it could be subtropical, so sort of expecting them to classify it as such.. but probably in the end be a fully tropical system.
95L.. convection is going. has a fairly circular burst signature, slowed down significantly and now following the disintegrating central altanic trough. probably move generally north with westward meanderings next few days... expect this to be a depression tomorrow.
system to the south is maintaining structure and slightly more convective.. though still very scant. moving westward as it has dissociated from the invest to the north. 17/51 coordinates.. shear is light. ssts picking up ahead and speed/convergent environment maybe improving.. though in spite of all this still a slim chance feature.
various models are playing with gulf and near cuba ideas.. but pretty vague and inconsistent. waiting for some signs to appear before i get interested in the slightest.
thinking invest on the new wave/low around 20w. models taking it wnw with little change indicated.. puzzled by what to think as there is so far no analysis and no invest closeup shots of structure are available. the 6hr meteosat shots are woefully inadequate and leave the easternmost part of the basin a place of uncertainty to the eye.
anyhow, is it just me or does the goes 8 not give a view of the basin from midnight to dawn? always wondered.. its a geostationary satelite.. why no pics in the wee hours?
there, done, gnight. got to drive a good distance tomorrow.
HF 0745z07september