Fay has jumped inland and will probably produce 20 inches of rain in some locations BUT not over Houston...training bands haven't been all that numerous there as some have said here. Somebody will get waterlogged bigtime...but it doesn't look like Houston.

Wave SE of Bermuda should be a depression late this morning or more likely later this afternoon. Convection look good and signature is decent. Kind of small so any increase in shear would make this storm very characteristic of this 2002 season: short-lived and weak.

The African is definitely going to be something in the coming days. Yesterday all of the convection was west of the wave axis but today convection is now consolidated into a tight ball. Conditions ahead are pretty good, too. Main obstacle for this system will be upper-level trough that sheared and destroyed Dolly. This one should be a pretty slow developer so should miss any threating upper-level features. *IF* this one tries to go all the way (10-15 days out) the stage looks cleared for it. I've been looking at what the tracking map looks like and it seems like we need a long track system to make things complete. It's still a few days from peak folks...but the seasons have been late the past few years it seems like.

Convection blowing up quite nicely east of the Bahamas this morning, I agree with HF that a low could try to form here later today. This is a watch and see thing, but with all of the tricks Edoaurd played with us we have to watch carefully.

BTW...Tropical Depression 7 (Floyd) formed three years ago today.

Should be at least an INVEST and maybe even T-numbers on African wave. Be surprised at no INVEST for it. Definitely getting better organized, definitely something to watch.

Kevin