back from the ribber. no sunburn, yaay. too many girls, bigger yaay.
saw that gulf convergence even before reading bastardi.. was wowed.. read bastardi and am now pondering the possiblities. though not extremely likely, something could develop under the upper high, not west of it as fay did. probably a half measure feature like fay.. but i dunno..
maybe all those model runs making gulf trouble had something realisitic in mind after all..
well they went and upped 95L to td7.. good job nhc. it isnt intensifying in a hurry.. actually looks like crap. turned back to the west today (?). well guess maybe it will do that for a while. environment not wonderful but not too horrible.. i guess it could weaken from here on in, but think it more likely it becomes a weak tropical storm and slowly moves further west.
wave south of there well defined with a good oblong rotation, but no convection. shear goes to next to nothing in about a day along its track.. but with no convection, just a wave headed into the islands.
east atlantic wave not looking terribly organized, but plenty of energy with it. there is supposedly a broad surface low with it.. should begin to show on goes 8 visibles tomorrow, until then not a very good idea what its doing.
the big story: 97L. not developing in traditional tropical fashion, may indeed be subtropical in its initial stages.. but as this sucker deepens and structures itself... which i think it should.. has a pretty good shot at becoming a hurricane. doubt all the globals are lying to me for one, and really like the look this thing has for deuce.
most of the models bring it up to the carolina coast tuesday, only a couple actually take it ashore. the rest slow it down offshore and turn it out to sea. either solution puts a system close enough to the carolinas to give the kids a holiday at the coast.
unless it slows as the ridge weakens to the north earlier this week offshore.. the ashore approach wouldnt give it sufficient time to become an intense hurricane.. so TS to moderate hurricane is the likely range of strength.
sooner this thing organizes the further west it will go.
anyway a TD and a few potential trouble spots.. one very likely and two more with decent chances.
G and H storms look pretty certain by the end of next week.
bastardi's talk about the pattern break in october-- sudden pattern shift in october correllates in time with the active span for the western carib.. undulating ridge/troughs eastern u.s. tend to stir things up down there. so maybe another good hurricane in mid/late october in the western carib coming north this year.. thats out there. just a chump guess if it verifies anyway.
okay, quitting analysis. why dont i just make short to the point posts like every sane person on here?? stuff is so under my skin.
by the way not too hard on scottsvb. knock him for being haughty yes, definitely, but not for having totally unsound ideas.. he did see trouble brewing down there early on, and did bet on it having a westward component. can't discredit the entirety of his foresight. away from the microscope he had the right general idea. took it too far yes, but thats a matter of interpretation.. you can hate the gfdl for inventing fake storm tracks and have to admit it may see too much trouble, but that it doesnt often not see it coming. decent analogy. better be ok to have only a clue, 'cause i NEVER seem to hit the nail without taking a few whacks at it.. nor does anyone else. including the expert/official sources.
ok ill shut the ---- up. applause.
HF 0127z08september