Tonight I'm just going to go into detail about what I think the Bahamian system could do.

I'd like to start by saying that I don't believe the low is going to form at 30N. That looks WAY to far north...seems as if it could develop at around 25N. We'll see what recon says tomorrow if they go out there. The track is dependant on the intensity in a high manner. We are still clueless about the intensity for now. The possibilities are (not in any order or probability):
1. System develops around 30N as models suggest and develops to near minimal hurricane strength. Brushes or briefly makes landfall along coastal North Carolina.
2. System develops rapidly along 25N and recurves as a category 3 or greater. Bothers no one directly.
3. System develops slowly around 25N, begins to curve NW but misses trough (like Edouard) and recurves towards anywhere from Melbourne, Florida to Savanah, Georgia. Makes landfall as a strong cat 1 or borderline cat 2.

It should be noted that this year the "home grown" storms have had a habit of near-missing or totally missing trough connections.

My final word (for now): If this thing develops a low center near 30N, a threat from NC northward seems likely. A slow developer near 25N and, well, I hope Edouard was a good drill for Floridians because this might just be the real thing given proper location and intensity of the system. We'll know a LOT more by later tomorrow. Even the NWS in Melbourne said, "Forecast is totally up in the air after Monday". All interests from EC of Florida to North Carolina need to keep a very close eye to their south and east.

I believe this will recieve the name "Gustav" if it goes tropical. "Gustav"...kinda sounds a little scary like Georges.

Kevin