hey, give td 7 a little credit. hung on as an invest for five days before being classified, and upstream im not so sure about what conditions it will meet. possibly support as there is a split in the flow ahead, one jet tailing the receding central atlantic trough into that sharp trough in the east atlantic.. and the other hooking around to the sw into the caribbean. could provide diffluent support (though i admit this is not likely).
nuff about the td. other things:
1) 97L putting up some deeper convection on the last pics. presentation isnt improving in a huge hurry, but it has improved a lot since saturday morning. this of course could be our bavarian storm tomorrow.. (german names in the atlantic basin??)
2) gulf disturbance convection on the slide from earlier.. convergent surge supporting has weakened. inland with fay i get this strange idea it might develop a new feeder band off the gulf and start tracing it back SE... seems really off the wall but for some reason it wont leave my mind.
3) the much mentioned wave off africa.. there is a low level swirl that ran out ahead, shows up well even on IR2. think this is the low formerly associated with the wave. lot of subsidence out there.. and i think the high amp trough in the far east atlantic sheared its convection away. tempted to say.. so much for that. but it is a fairly energetic feature for sure.
4) mjo graphic is showing a positive anomaly patch that has developed over the atlantic. might bring our activity burst to an end, or just be a flub. shear has become quite a bit more pronounced over the last week or so.
HF 0431z08september