idea that fay might backtrack has only to do with the tendency for a tropical cyclone center to develop towards its support, and for climo on texas systems to move inland and behave erratically. since there isnt much to steer the system, im guessing it could do it.. but there isnt any kind of clear push back like the one allison had.
there is also the tendency for models wanting to maintain unsettled weather in the gulf.. guess that plays in with the whole idea too.
subtd 8.. close up visibles are showing lots of small vortices pinwheeling around. system is getting a better deep-system proflie as strong atmospheric lifting is generating these. still awkwardly organized, but expecting hurricane hunter to find gale force winds already, when it gets in there in a couple hours. as for track.. something new finally appeared in the runs.. one of the ukmet ones wants to phase it in and takes it very close to cape cod. stands out among the various NE buttonhook solutions. some models are making subtd 8 a very intense cyclone, by the way.
td 7.. looks for the worse. only little catch here is that an upstream shear-friendly environment exists.. but by then expect the low to be disorganized and just a chunky piece of inflow for what should be gustav at that point.. to digest.
wave near 35w.. very low amplitude but quite energetic. upper winds are becoming less favorable in the east atlantic though.. and lots of subsidence. just have to see how well the considerable amt of convection can hold on.
so likely tropical system moving towards the carolinas early week, possibly up the coast. various models want to maintain disturbed weather in the gulf.
td 7 weakened or maintained as a weak feature.
wave that went into the islands this morning well defined but convectionless.. unimportant now.
a couple more energetic waves to come off africa this week.
thats the way things stand right now.
HF 1631z08september