remember how a year ago the nhc decreed that atlantic to pacific basin crossers would retain their names? well seems like theyre just going to use normal names for subtropical systems now, as the title 'sutropical storm gustav' is being used instead of subtrop 1. recon got a flight level temp of 23C.. note if that rises when they drop the subtrop title. pretty close to warm core if i'm not mistaken, in spite of the loose structure with all the entrained subsidence.
by the way, when all that subsidence is pressed out, watch how quickly gustav will deepen. also, globals are in good agreement on track.. so far theyve had a good handle on gustav, so the coast nip and out has good credibility. now the question is: are they under forecasting the ridge with gustav pumping it? the recurvature has been getting less sharp on all, have to see if the track keeps bending closer to the NE. bastardi calls the gulf a 'headache'. fay hasnt done much besides rain itself out, not moving much just north of cotulla texas. same place it was 20 hours ago. convergence over the gulf is being called the 'edouard ghost'... i dont necessarily think of it that way. there isnt any real focal point to it or pressure min.. sort of at the whim of whatever the low level winds are doing more synoptically. havent seen any sizable pressure falls, so not like something is about to pop. its just wait and see if anything tries to focus energy.
td 7 remnants still spinning and throwing a little convection. if it still has its definition tomorrow, the shear will have improved signifcantly.. if not it will just entrain in gustav. this little feature strikes me as a survivor, as edouard was.
east atlantic wave/low shrouded in mystery. very convective, but low cloud movement tells of a broad, e-w elongated circulation. lots of subsidence upstream, and upper air winds less than ideal, though not in killer mode. no hurry to develop here, pretty definitely not going to try recurving early.
recap, gustav is the big story, fay is still pesky, td 7 probably done but not for certain.. and an energetic wave in the east atlantic with an abnormal presentation.
fin.
HF 0002z09september