gustav slowing down a little this morning, looking more organized. recon found a 1002 pressure and flight level max temp at 19C.. cooler than last night. but, with slowing speed, better outflow structure, high oceanic heat content.. gustav should begin to intensify at a greater pace later today. right now if it crosses any land i'm thinking only carteret/hyde/dare counties.. but gale force winds might start at myrtle beach and eventually be felt as far up the coast as nantucket. think it will bomb out as it phases, intensify as it becomes extratropical later this week.
td 7.. written off but surely too soon. slowed down and now emerging from that nasty jet stream, convection returning. the low level structure is nowhere near as defined as before, but as it drifts west and north it will probably slowly reorganize.
fay.. the low level remnant is now near laredo, bending southward. a pulse from its mid level low kicked convection on the texas coast.. now pressures are down near 1008mb off padre island.. comparable with the lowest pressures at the old low/mid level center. this could represent an attempt for fay to reform on the coast... or just a new system altogether. if something develops here it will be interesting to see if the nhc calls it fay, or something new.
central gulf convection returning for the day... this is where avn/nogaps/cmc are now saying an eastward moving low develops and heads for west florida. with gustav slowing the easterlies it will continue as a convergent environment.. but whether the gulf trouble comes to be here or back near texas.. or at all.. remains to be seen.
interestingly outside of gustavs envelope in the bahamas is another burst of convection.. convergence with upper support.. only noticed because gfdl kept making little storms that whipped up around gustav out of this area.
east atlantic.. wave midway across amplitude up a little, still a broad longitudinal axis of turning. convection healthy in spite of subsidence.. shear lessening. enough models are following this to give it consideration, though not any better organized.
east of there another wave/mid level spin is off africa, some convection, just south of the cape verdes. bastardi talking about the setup for a long tracked storm.. so watching this area though not seeing anything overtly threatening.
basin remains active with old systems threatening to redevelop and possibly a new one somewhere in the cards too.. though none for certain.
HF 1435z09september