gustav still has a decoupled inner core. there is either one mid to low level center under the main convective burst or just a mid level center with a smaller one pinwheeling into the dry air slot. noticed that subsidence only really tends to affect tropical systems when there is shear aiding its intrusion.. in this case easterly gradient shear between the upper low to the south and the ridge to the north. as the storm slows and moves closer to the coast this should abate some.. as the ridge to the north recedes. think that gustav will begin to intensify by this evening and become a hurricane some time tuesday.. and move very close to carteret hyde and dare counties if not across them.
fay.. the low level remnant swirl is tracing i35 southwest in texas.. down near laredo now. offshore the primary feeder band is becoming a development threat. sfc obs indicating low pressures and some westerly winds on the west side of the convective line, with a strong easterly flow on the other side... and as the earlier posted discussion says, several models calling for low pressure to develop off the texas coast. personally thinking if anything comes together it will be east of brownsville. florida people, some of you are talking like it will be your problem. i doubt this.. would be unusual for a tropical system to hit central florida after forming off texas. models are likely seriously overdoing the late week amplification on/off the east coast. think it more likely a western gulf problem. but, if a low were to form in the central gulf.. then, maybe.
td 7 remnants, as bastardi mentions, not aware theyre supposed to be dead. not looking particularly good.. they got the bright idea to stall under the outflow jet from gustav (edouard exhibited this peculiar sadistic attitude). not moving west very fast, but not going away very fast either. low chances, but existent ones, that it will redevelop.
central atlantic wave.. thinking it may develop past 50w. very energetic.
HF 1805z09september