North Carolina is going to get a lot of weather from Gustav because of his orientation. All of the convection is on the west side, which in a few hours, could start to effect North Carolina. The folks along the Outer Banks can expect some winds to about 55 miles per hour and torrential rain starting late tonight and last through tomorrow. Storm surge of 3-5 feet higher than normal will also effect the Outer Banks. This is a big event...our first EC brush since 1999. Looks like our much touted pattern change which will bring more storms towards the EC in coming years. We'll have to see if this persists.

The wave at and slightly past 40W is BROAD. This is the only thing really inhibiting development with this system. Look for more organization over the next couple of days. I'd look for a depression to form around 50-55W.

The wave south of the Cape Verde Islands is also well organized with some strong convection with it. Slow development may occur out of this wave over the next few days.

An area of convection has been coming and going north of the Yucatan Peninsula since yesterday. This could eventually develop into something. However, timing/strength is very uncertain. This area is showing vague signs of what it might do at this point. Something to watch but not anything for sure.

Looks like a burst in Cape Verde activity and a possible GOMEX storm are the things to watch over the next week. We'll all be watching...could be another strong season occuring late.

Kevin