gustav has deepened slowly all day and now finally has a partial cdo feature, not a weak core and clusters on bands hundreds of miles from the center. the nhc should change gustav to a tropical storm on the next advisory, as it now has deep convection almost surrounding the center.
i'm surprised the strength was held at 45mph, this needs to be changed too. recon found 53kt flight level winds about six hours ago, which equates to roughly 60mph surface winds. i really hope they fix all of these things at 11pm.
thoughts on the track are.. basically the official blend. the models agree quite well about hooking gustav NE skirting the outer banks.. unusually well. when you get model consensus like this best to go with it.
fay remnants.. visions of fay drifting back offshore are seeming ill founded, but still the circulation persists. hpc advisories say there are only 10mph winds with the system, yet laredo has been getting stronger winds all day long. the center is now south of laredo, southern end of webb county texas, straddling the rio grande. stalled again, no less. interesting that it still has such definition as it has been onshore now for better than sixty hours. very unlikely it will ever make it back to the coast, though.
gulf.. same as last night. nothing in a hurry to form, but sloppy disturbed weather everywhere.
td7.. nrl still tracking remnants as 95L. weak low level circulation popping convection beneath a furious NW shear jet. i will agree with calling it dead now.. it picked the worst place possible to sit and ponder.
waves... 40w wave amplitude up, but crashing into an upper trough, which just happens to be fed by the jet scraping 95L flat. basically, el waveo no formo under el shearo. closer to the islands maybe better luck, but not where it is.
back near 25/30w is another low latitude swirl in a wave, with fair convection. probably wont develop where it is, maybe down the road past the upstream trough.
basin might actually go quiet after gustav. there are some disturbances that could develop, but all seem intent on playing chicken with wind shear.
HF 0146z10september