has an incomplete banding type eye feature this morning. pressure has fallen 5mb in the past 12hr or so.. 987 is usually a hurricane. winds rated at 60mph by the nhc.. i'd call 'em 65.. since recon has found 62kt and the normal 10% reduction gives 56kt.. ~64mph. anyway inner core not very tight, now very apparent on morehead city radar. either going directly over hatteras or just east.. probably just east.. in about eight hours i'd guess. at the current rate of intensification that gives a 983-984mb storm.. so decent chance gustav will be a hurricane at landfall/closest approach. all that said, a pretty run of the mill outer banks storm.
fay remnants drifting down towards monterrey, texas rains lessen from here on.
gulf system that various models have been wanting to create in various places isnt embellishing on its intentions.. thats if it really is in the future. surface wind field in the gulf has been chaotic for days.
very intense convergence convection south of gustav over the bahamas, surface winds curving around it some. probably not a development threat, and if it were it would just follow gustav out to sea.
td 7 remnants.. yet again, bubbling up convection. low level swirl is still intact near 25/57. upper jet max axis passed ahead, weakening.. and subsidence now pouring down from the north and northeast behind it.. and still the system is sputtering along. by rights it should be dead, but there it is again this morning.
east of the islands the 45w wave is acting up. it has had a surface low with it all the way across.. now the wave has amped up and lost its e-w oblong circulation.. and is throwing some fairly good convection. however, upper trough digging in ahead and shearing the wazoo out of it.. probably get ripped to shreds, would recurve way out there if it did develop any.. but this wave energy will have to be watched if it doesnt shear out.. when it gets further west.
wave behind it at low latitude, not much convection, not as impressive in terms of signature.
thats everything this morning. hanna may be in the works, but isnt very close at this hour.
HF 1424z10september