what am i supposed to say? yeah, theres some weather in the gulf, but dry air intruding off the continent. way i see it.. some will persist in the west gulf, weakly, dry air all around, but maybe with a surviving surface low. the convection off the yucatan is moving east.. that pulse of subsidence is moving south acting like a front, causing plenty of lifting ahead of it.. not surprising.. a front doesnt necessarily have cooler air behind it, or much lower pressure, it can better be defined by falls in dewpoint and humidity. serves the purpose here pretty well. the weather moving east towards florida might try to spin up hybrid fashion, then move out into the atlantic. if anything, weak.. more likely just a bunch of rain.
i keep wanting to write off the td 7 swirl.. nrl finally dropped the invest but that damned thing is still there! yes, its popping like one thundershower, but the low cloud swirl still shows on IR2. subsidence abounds, but will gradually weaken over time.. and there is ridging aloft. with the amplification to the northwest this might regenerate by baroclinic means. i hope it goes away or does develop.. im tired of it lingering like a pesky hangnail.
african waves.. one at 45w has been sheared senseless.. the one behind it has spotty convection under a narrow low amplitude upper ridge. but it too will have to submit to the shear monster. interesting: globals take it due west and track it as far as the caribbean. as nothing but a wave, but maybe it will have a window somewhere in there.
gustav.. go to newfoundland. flirting with hurricane status, has another 24-48 to accomplish that.
interesting that it is now september 11th.. day after the traditional peak of the season.. and still nothing has reached hurricane strength. another quirky year.
there, gave my nightly rundown. summary: gustav goes, maybe nothing to fill his shoes. we're actually in an mjo negative span, so wait til it tries flipping back. anyhow, night all.. take it easy.
HF 0448z11september