gustav has dropped to 969mb last recon.. plane called back 91kt winds but in the message body it mentions 100kt ones. the surface mid latitude low developing over the gulf of maine is probably giving gustav that baroclinic strengthening kick, right before they start to merge. that will probably happen tonight.
gulf.. surface winds are showing what is probably a closed low (open west if anything) developing in the central gulf. nrl has gone so far as to tag it invest 98L.. the 19th of the year. lots of intense convection SE of the possible surface system. lowest wind/pressure i found was 1009mb/25kt. since the nhc has found the term subtropical storm suitable for tropical systems that dont have all the classic features, could get a subtrop here within 24hrs, my thinking goes. of course there is major subsidence intrusion to the north and westerly shear.. so also very possibly just an elongated trough with very heavy rain on the east side. recon wont be there until whatever is going to happen has already happened.
HF 1822z11september