still kinda divergent on then evolution of a low SW of Florida. PoPs will be high throughout the 3 day period with easing off the southern zones late friday into saturday. Evolution of a low sw of florida may happen, but dry air on the west side and upper level winds not all toofavorable for a strong system to develop as does AVN/NOGAPS. Im disregarding ETA/NGM solutions of keeping a low in sw gulf. Mid level dry air is already grinding into the area. Future track of low should bring it alittle further east then most forcast. Certainty is very low in exact location. Currently Tampa-panama city in line with Cedar Key. Strength is even more uncertain. UkMet is nonexistant and should be ruled out but Avn is overdone. Right now thinking is that Nogaps solution and Gfdl is best with a weak - moderate TS moving ene then NE to NE gulf over next 48 hours and onshore later Friday night. Intensity though is very uncertain, but mositure in pops of 3-5 inches north fla, 1-4 central, and 2 and under southern expected over next 48-72 hours. Ill post more later on updates and on my personal site. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter