ninth? seventh.. G=7th letter. unless you think depressions are important.
cloud tops have warmed away from the low center, so what nhc might have earlier classified as a td or ts is now a bit weaker. probably still enough to go with to give it the nod, but theyre checking with recon just to make sure. of course i'm not expecting theyll find enough of a center to give us a vortex message, more likely just hear the usual prefab developing system message at 11pm.
personally think the system is loosely organized and has such dry air entrainment that it will never get very strong if it does develop. maybe be a tropical storm.. kevin 80kt is pretty nuts. think the northerly movement is overdone on models, probably be a central florida thing, maybe even southern. not move fast either. whole disturbed area will probably still be viable even after crossing florida as the ridge builds back.
models... have the trough left behind gustav begatting a low.. kind of in the same general area as in former td7. i wonder...
two waves, both looking strong. the one near 20/50 is going to be leaving the shear and under ridging in a day or two, maybe start something north of the islands. of course if the ridge is built back by then it wont be recurving. behind it the other wave, with the turning and spotty convection is nicely defined and staying south. models are following it and so am i.. though not expecting it to develop quickly. as it gets further west the upper trough should make it start throwing convection, then maybe it can become one of those sheared struggling tropical systems. further upstream the synoptic pattern with both of these is for the east coast to open back up.. if we get by these then the cape verde threat will be essentially gone.
i see bastardi is still up. the site did ask me for my accuweather password, so i assumed the worst. still, get him for just a little bit longer. i draw a lot from him, so my awareness will probably suffer when he becomes a pay service.
anyone gustav.. byett noticed the vortex msg and read the same things out of it that i did... but the nhc opted to assume gustav's extratropical-phasing structure made the storm weaker than normal flight level winds would suggest. since the upper and lower systems arent well stacked i guess its a fair move.
nuff then.
HF 2337z11september