TD8 has formed as expected. I want to look at the next model runs for 00z on the avn,nogaps and gfdl before any strength at landfall is presumed. Currently most models want to weaken the system after 60 hours early Sat. Dry air might want to reach into the deveolping TS hindering it from developing. I will post more later tonight when the new runs come in. I expect more deepening or convection late tonight and especially tomorrow night. Currently thinking 60 mph near Cedar Key Friday night seems best bet but only 40%. On side note alot of good inputs on this site continue, we all like the info alot of you get on ship reports and other data the public cant get from the weather depts all the time. Hankfrank gives a real good idea with reasoning to his perdictions. I welcome his inputs. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter