okay.. i was thinking a very weak system dragged across florida. model runs come in and all pretty much take it up this way.. wouldnt have guessed. synoptic environment should improve i think. as the longwave axis to the north passes by shear should lighten and reorient maybe to NWerly.. with a slow moving system shear isnt as much a big deal as subsidence.. it usually takes the two combined to make a kill. subsidence is all the way around the NW semicircle of the storm, but not coming on as heavy. the storm seems to be staking its ground, probably not lose that battle.
so anyway, i'm thinking sarasota-ish, and the nhc official track, though nothing to put stock in.. is up to franklin county. put it in there, we get a bath here in tallahassee.
well, dont see it intensifying much in the near future, maybe weaken some overnight. later tomorrow maybe start to slowly deepen. the 50mph tropical storm intensity strikes me as reasonable.
anyhow other stuff.
gustav is passing cape breton island, still a hurricane. may still have tropical structure when it smashes into newfoundland tomorrow morning. nothing too out of the ordinary for those folks.. theyre used to getting rough maritime weather (often enough our fish spinners become their windstorms).
td7 remnants.. getting caught in the low level sw-erly flow. this should finally kill it.. one can only hope. currently sliding northward at 27.5/60.
waves: lead wave has a surface swirl... obscured by the shear jet going over, but sw of the convective burst is what appears to be a closed swirl in a broader high amplitude wave. it however is playing in the shear, and not going to develop unless it makes it to the big friendly subsidence bowl in the TUTT, where the shear is light. energetic wave, has to be monitored.
trailer wave is nearing 40w, still a broad tumbling low cloud swirl with spotty convection. still staying south.. might be trying something tomorrow or friday.
thats the basin. the fun never stops.
HF 0331z12september